The 2022 Texas State 7-on-7 Tournament kicks off Thursday in College Station, as 128 teams representing high schools from all corners of Texas descend upon Aggieland for three days of high-octane passing league action. As much fun as the tournament will be — which you can stream live on Texan Live — there's always a lingering question, especially from detractors: what, exactly, does it mean?
Of course, nobody would suggest that winning 7-on-7 is as meaningful or special as winning a state championship in the fall; they're totally separate accomplishments. But how meaningful is success in 7-on-7? Can passing league success portend a successful fall season?
The answer is complicated, but in short: winning at 7-on-7 has a high (but not perfect) correlation to winning during the Texas high school football season.
What's the evidence behind this? Let's dive in, but first: a bit of history.
There have been three distinct eras of 7-on-7 in Texas. The first era, from its birth in 1998 until 2006 is the One-Division Era — that is, all teams competed together in one division, with one state champion. The second era, stretching from 2007 until 2017, is the Two-Division Era — the larger schools (Class 6A and 5A) competed in Division I, while everyone else (Class 4A and below, plus private schools) competed in Division II. The third and current era, which started in 2018, is the Three-Division Era — Division I for 6A, 5A and large private schools; Division II for 4A, 3A Division I and small private schools; and Division III for 3A Division II down through 1A. A total of 64 teams quailify in Division I, and 32 teams qualify in both Division II and Division III. For the purposes of this study, we're going to focus on the Three-Division Era, which is now three tournaments old: 2018, 2019 and 2021 (the 2020 tournament was canceled).
7-on-7 State Finalists Win More Than 10 Games On Average In The Fall
There have been 18 teams that have advanced to a State 7-on-7 championship game in the past three tournaments. How did they fare when the fall season rolled around? Pretty darn well.