Minutes before Texas A&M went on stage for SEC Media Days, the Houston Chronicle dropped a bombshell. 

According to the report, Texas and Oklahoma have reached out to the SEC about becoming member institutions down the line. Stadium reports that the two power programs don’t plan to extend their grant of rights with the Big 12. 

With so much information and speculation flying around, we took a deep breath to collect our thoughts. Here are our initial musings from what would be the most earth shattering college football shakeup in a decade.

Be patient

A few months ago, the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal reported that the Big 12 went to the television networks and tried to rework their contract. The networks declined. That moment should have been a warning sign to college football that Oklahoma and Texas were ready to start shopping. 

That said, the Big 12’s Grant of Rights extends through 2025. What that means is that neither Texas nor Oklahoma can sell their rights without incurring massive financial penalties – ones that are prohibitive even for schools of that power. There are a number of steps that will almost certainly happen to slow this process along. These programs aren't leaving anytime soon. 

Additionally, 11 SEC schools have to approve all new members. The Statesman’s Kirk Bohls reported that former Big 12 members Texas A&M and Missouri would be “no” votes at this time. Would former SWC-mate Arkansas vote no as well to deny an advantage? That would leave the onus on Vanderbilt to not abstain this time around. If they refuse, then this plan goes up in flames. 

There is more than smoke when it comes to Texas and Oklahoma looking around. If I was a betting man, I'd guess Texas and Oklahoma leave the Big 12. Still, what looks possible on July 22, 2021, could change dramatically over the coming months. Nothing is certain. 

Texas is chasing Texas A&M's shadow

Since leaving for the SEC, Texas A&M has surpassed Texas on the field in virtually every way. Despite playing in a tougher conference, the Aggies have 12 more wins than the ‘Horns since joining the SEC. Texas A&M finished with a better record than Texas in eight of the nine seasons, and will almost certainly do the same this year. 

Texas finished with 34 more wins over Texas A&M’s last nine years in the Big 12. For younger fans who grew up thinking winning was their birthright, the post-Aggie Big 12 has been a swift kick in the teeth.

Simply put, it’s hard to see Texas considering a move to the SEC as anything but an attempt to try and replicate the Texas A&M formula – but with blue blood backing. Will a slight bump in already elite recruiting change everything on the 40 Acres? It’s hard to say, but it’s obvious that boosters and alums are frustrated enough with being perennial underachievers that they’re willing to try anything. 

There is certainly a scenario where Texas heads to the SEC, fails to surpass Texas A&M’s behemoth under Fisher and quietly falls to a middle of the pack team. Could Texas survive placing behind Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma and LSU year after year? 

Texas A&M can’t be happy

When Texas A&M left the Big 12, the point was to be a program that gave Texas high school prospects access to the Southeastern Conference without having to leave the state. It was an opportunity for the Aggies to cement a unique identity, and has paid off in a big way. Before the SEC, the Aggies hadn't put together a top 15 recruiting class since 2005, much less top 10. Texas A&M has five top 10 recruiting classes since 2012. 

Without question, the Longhorns and Sooners entering the SEC would put a real damper on that. Certainly Jimbo Fisher’s pedigree and success still gives the Aggies plenty to build on, but stiff in-state, in-conference competition on the recruiting trail would attack their pitch to recruits directly. 

Texas A&M’s athletic director Ross Bjork admitted as much with his lone statement on the matter at SEC Media Days: “We want to be the only SEC program in the state of Texas.” 

There’s much to lose in Texas

The three other Texas Big 12 schools are left in a strange position if realignment happens. None have obvious homes in a post-realignment world. 

Texas Tech does stretch to the west, so conceivably the Pac-12 could be interested. It’s still nine hours from the nearest Pac-12 school. Getting into the Metroplex could be a draw for a conference interested in TCU. The university also is one of the smallest student bodies in the Power Five. 

Baylor incurred a great deal of deserved national wrath after the 2016 scandal. Even though it ranks among the most competitive athletic departments in the nation – finishing No. 4 in the men’s Capital One Cup standings – the PR hit for adding Baylor could be enough to complicate their place in the conversation. 

SMU and Houston have proven that getting left out of the highest level of the sport isn’t a death sentence by any means, but it would certainly hurt. The athletic directors at all three of these schools have great reputations. This is where it has to pay off. 

The Big 12 should be decisive

If Texas and Oklahoma officially decide to leave the Big 12, the league is going to have to make some tough decisions. There will almost certainly be a mad rush from the remaining eight to find new landing spots. 

The league would lose a tremendous amount of value by losing the two flagship schools, but there are still a number of nationally competitive programs in the group. That said, it’s hard to know whether any would be strong draws for other power conferences. 

One idea would be to quickly court the top of the Group of Five – SMU, Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis for example. That gives the league four new borderline top 25 teams, cuts the legs out from the sixth league and likely creates enough value to still be a head above the Group of Five monetarily, even if it’s behind the other power leagues. 

The Playoff expansion gives the Big 12 a rare opportunity to hold at least some value while losing its faces. But to create anything lasting, the league has to act fast. 

P.S: Bring back the Southwest Conference

Yes, the way that money and nationalization of college football changed the sport meant that the small, regional league never stood a chance long term. I don’t care. College football is better when it’s regional. 

The Big 12 realignment brought about Lubbock and Morgantown being in the same bubble. This next one could make Norman and Gainesville peers. It makes no sense! Money drives sports, like anything else, but we still lose something when the identity of the sport is lost in the name of dollars and cents. 

The good news? This round of realignment would bring at least one of those old relics back. It comes at a great cost, but Texas joining the SEC would mean that Texas and Texas A&M are finally forced to settle it on the field.