Houston unexpectedly fell into a major rebuild under head coach Dana Holgorsen after a starting quarterback redshirted and entered the transfer portal. Don’t worry, though. There’s plenty of reason for optimism. 

The Cougars rank among the national leaders in returning production. Running back Mulbah Car, receiver Marquez Stevenson and quarterback Clayton Tune are all back, along with 93 percent of the defense. In a second year under well-regarded tactician Joe Cauthen, a rise is to be expected. The schedule makes projecting that growth much harder. 

Cancelling spring practice will make predictions that much harder. But for a team like Houston that boasts extreme continuity, it could be an advantage. Here’s how we see Houston’s 2020 season going. 

Sept. 3: Rice

The Bayou Bucket Classic has been a fun game, but not a competitive one since the Cougars left Conference USA in 2012. The Owls are quietly rising under Mike Bloomgren, but not enough for this game to be competitive. 

Prediction: Win (1-0)

Sept. 12: at Washington State

It’s Cougars vs. Cougars for the second year in a row. Wazzu brought in vastly underrated coach Nick Rolovich to run the program, who will bring run-and-shoot concepts to an already productive air raid offense. A rebuilding year should give Houston a puncher’s chance, but going on the road against a Power Five opponent is always tough. 

Prediction: Loss (1-1)

Sept. 19: at Memphis

The Tigers might have lost head coach Mike Norvell, but Memphis won’t go anywhere in 2020. Quarterback Brady White and running back Kenneth Gainwell make up the best backfield in the Group of Five, if not America. 

Prediction: Loss (1-2)

Sept. 26: North Texas

The Mean Green have a well-regarded head coach, but a new quarterback, new defensive coordinator and host of new skill players means North Texas isn’t quite ready to compete with the Coogs right now.

Prediction: Win (2-2)

Oct. 8: Tulane

A last-minute miracle in New Orleans derailed Houston’s season a year ago. The Green Wave have some key losses, which gives Houston a chance to strike back. This game will show the importance of bringing back the vast majority of a front seven, as preparing for Willie Fritz’s option spread is never easy. 

Prediction: Win (3-2)

Oct. 16: at BYU

This second battle of Cougars could prove to be the most critical game of the 2020 season for Houston. Kalani Sitake has things back under control in Provo, but Houston needs this game to comfortably make a bowl game. Will Houston get enough from its defense to keep BYU QB Zach Wilson – dubbed the Mormon Manziel for his playmaking ability – under control? 

Prediction: Loss (3-3)

Oct. 24: at Navy

This will be a big test for Houston’s experienced defense. Navy lost do-everything option quarterback Malcolm Perry to graduation, but Ken Niumatalolo always has another waiting in the wings. The worry? Houston has also given up 162 points in three games over the past two seasons against option offenses. 

Prediction: Loss (3-4)

Oct. 31: UCF

UCF had a slightly down season by its standards in 2019, but should be back to national relevance again in 2020. Seventy-one percent of the total production is back and Dillon Gabriel proved worthy of being next in line under center. Houston isn’t ready to compete with a team of this caliber. 

Prediction: Loss (3-5)

Nov. 7: at Cincinnati

Luke Fickell flirted with some big-time jobs, but largely came back to Cincinnati because they team is poised to build on back-to-back 11-win campaigns. Defensively, the Bearcats can cause a lot of issues for Houston’s inexperienced offense. 

Prediction: Loss (3-6)

Nov. 14: USF

New USF coach Jeff Scott will have the Bulls recruiting and performing at a high level on offense before too long. Still, hosting South Florida in his first season should be a positive situation for this team. 

Prediction: Win (4-6)

Nov. 21: at SMU

Houston gave the Mustangs everything they could handle a year ago, but fell short in the final minutes of a tight game. While SMU loses major production on both sides, the offensive skill talent is good enough to cause Houston some issues. 

Prediction: Loss (4-7)

Nov. 28: Tulsa

Tulsa made strides with a consistent quarterback situation a year ago, but should still be no match for the Cougars in their final game of the season. By this point, Houston’s secondary should be playing at a high level. 

Prediction: Win (5-7)

Final Record: 5-7, 3-5

Houston consistently schedules as hard as any team in college football, and that continues with non-con matches against Wazzu and BYU, not to mention North Texas and Rice. That, combined with a brutal American Athletic West Division, makes the second year of a reload that much more difficult. 

The Cougars will have a puncher’s chance in every game. Even matchups against Memphis and Cincy could be winnable if some things turn right. Unfortunately they’ll also have a puncher’s chance to lose every game. Getting back to a bowl game should be expectations, but it will take some lucky breaks along the way.